The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Right-wing Found. for Defense of Democracies: “Israel will almost certainly wish to make an example of Hezbollah”

The Iran Nuclear Deal Means War Between Israel and Hezbollah

Jonathan Schanzer

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“…And for Israel, it will not take much to be provoked. The Israelis have been quite clear about their frustrations, after having been negotiated into a corner by the P5+1 world powers that ironed out the nuclear deal. Should Israel carry out a military strike on Iran under the shadow of the deal, the country would risk becoming a world pariah.

But Israel is under no such constraints with Hezbollah. In fact, Washington openly acknowledges the possibility of a conflagration between the two, and the White House is now openly touting the fact that it wishes to help arm the Israelis to handle Iran-sponsored regional aggression of this sort.

With the perception that its deterrence is shriveling amidst the very public spat with the Obama White House, Israel will almost certainly wish to make an example of Hezbollah. A victory against the strongest Iranian proxy in the region could make the kind of unequivocal statement Israel believes it needs while it waits to see if Iran holds up its end of the nuclear deal…”

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

August 28, 2015 at 4:29 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Libyan Information Minister: Tunisia is actually the one exporting violent jihadists… not the reverse

From the information minister of the Libyan Salvation Government, Mustafa Abu-Titah, in an interview yesterday with an Algerian daily:

“[Reporter] Could you name the brotherly countries you are talking about?

“[Abu-Titah] Tunisia is exporting terrorists in our direction. Yes, the majority of the IS elements are Tunisian nationals. Everybody knows that Tunisia itself is at the receiving end in view of what happened in Le Bardo museum, Sousse and other operations in Kasserine, Chaambi and all the Tunisian west. This is a fact.

Written by nickbiddlenoe

August 28, 2015 at 4:22 pm

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Palestinian fighters from other refugee camps said transferred to Ein el-Helweh camp; decisive confrontation approaching

Translated today in our Daily Briefing via from Ad-Diyyar:

“Well-informed Palestinian sources said that “Ain el Helweh is just about to fall under the control of the radical groups now that the Fatah movement factions’ ability to resist the assaults against them has regressed, which has pushed the [Fatah] movement, in cooperation with the Lebanese security authorities, to summon dozens of trained fighters from the Rashidiyeh and Borj al-Shamali camps in Tyr. This step was carried out calmly and away from the media as a preemptive measure to confront the possibility of the clashes’ expansion. The sources indicated that the present events are very dangerous and will have some massive repercussions on Lebanon in general…”

Written by nickbiddlenoe

August 28, 2015 at 3:19 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

The real solution to (start) to end the European Migrant crisis: End the Syria war now

EU policymakers will continue to struggle with ever greater flows of migrants if the war in Syria continues on – that is obvious.

What is also obvious now after meeting senior EU officials last month is that the EU has NO plan to deal with the even more massive refugee flow should the Assad regime collapse in the next period.

A solution could be had – but pressure needs to be applied all around, especially on regional US and EU allies like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, so that a sustainable conflict mitigation program is put in place, one which will not see Bashar go for now (and sadly so…).

Written by nickbiddlenoe

August 28, 2015 at 2:17 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Akhbar’s Ibrahim Amin on the Maghsal capture operation at Beirut airport – details are actually fairly clear

A critical piece we translated the other day – I don’t understand why analysts are still wondering about some details in the operation that seem pretty clear here in Beirut… especially when you hear Ibrahim say it from a pro-Hezbollah perspective.

The key section for me – if he is correct (and he seems outraged enough to believe his narrative) – is: “On August 8, 2015, Lebanese security elements who turned out to belong to the Information Branch at the Internal Security Forces, stormed into the Beirut International Airport and arrested a traveler who was coming to Lebanon from Iran. The man was quickly transferred to their headquarters. Less than 12 hours later, they drove him back to the airport where a Saudi private jet transferred him to Al-Riyadh…”

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On August 27, Ibrahim al-Amin wrote the following piece in Al-Akhbar daily: “The Kingdom of the Saud family has not modified its criminal ways. For long decades, it has worked on using criminal gangs covered with the name of some forces, parties, or even security services, in order to settle its scores with its opponents. Beirut has always played a part in this criminality. On December 17, 1979, a gang kidnapped Saudi oppositionist, Nasser al-Said, from Hamra Street in Beirut. The kidnappers were members of the Palestinian military security service headed by Maj. Gen. Atallah Atallah, a.k.a. Aboul Zaim. As for the coordinator and funder of the operation, this was the then Saudi Ambassador, Ali Shaer.

“There was talk about ten million dollars paid in return. Hours following the kidnapping, a coffin arrived from the Saudi embassy to the Beirut Airport to be shipped on board of a private jet headed to Al-Riyadh. The Saudi documents claimed that the coffin contained the body of the daughter of the Kingdom’s ambassador to Damascus, Abdul Mohsen al-Zayd, and that the body needs to be transferred back to KSA. Then, Nasser al-Said vanished.

“On August 8, 2015, Lebanese security elements who turned out to belong to the Information Branch at the Internal Security Forces, stormed into the Beirut International Airport and arrested a traveler who was coming to Lebanon from Iran. The man was quickly transferred to their headquarters. Less than 12 hours later, they drove him back to the airport where a Saudi private jet transferred him to Al-Riyadh. The man is Ahmad Ibrahim al-Maghsal, the Saudi oppositionists who has been on the run for twenty years since Al-Riyadh as well as the USA accused him of staging the famous Al-Khobar bombing.

“In this new case, there’s no need to ask about the operator or the sum that has been paid. The operator is of course Saudi and perhaps the present ambassador, Ali Awad al-Osseiri, the man with the security background. As for the money, this has been paid in advance through the unofficial funding received by the Information Branch from Saudi Arabia not because this is a Lebanese security service but rather because this is the security arm of Saudi Arabia and the March 14 forces in Lebanon.

“How can this be happening? In a country preoccupied with files pertaining to the people’s daily livelihoods, there’s no room for any kind of accountability. This is further the case when an official militia that enjoys a ministerial and judiciary official political cover carries out the kidnapping. This militia has never coordinated any of its “security services” with any other body in Lebanon… Tomorrow, Ahmad al-Maghsal will be executed and his family will not be allowed to bury him. Many will be punished for charges of collusion on hiding him. In Lebanon, silence will prevail unless the parties who must act do act in order to halt this chaos, which aims at turning us all into mere garbage with no one to collect it from the street!” – Al-Akhbar Lebanon, Lebanon

Written by nickbiddlenoe

August 28, 2015 at 11:02 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Report says war, essentially, has started in Palestinian Refugee camp in Sidon, Lebanon; And local control is but one aspect of coming push

On August 27, the pro-Hezbollah Ad-Diyyar daily newspaper carried the following report by Hesham Yehya: “…The events that took place in the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, Ain el Helweh, jumped to the political and diplomatic circle of interests in Beirut especially since pieces of information coming from the camp indicate that this is way more than a mere Palestinian decision to settle the battle against the radical Islamists in Ain el Helweh. The takfiri groups used mortars for the first time in the clashes in addition to all sorts of heavy weapons following the sudden and violent attack launched by the members of these groups against the Fatah posts sand locations at the Taware’ neighborhood.

“Thus, observers on the ground believe that the objective of the radical Islamic groups in Ain el Helweh does not merely consist of breaking the Fatah movement… Indeed, the Islamists’ action, their possession of the newest kinds of heavy and middle weapons in addition to the generous support that they are receiving from external parties that are well-known for supporting the terrorist takfiri groups all over the region mainly in Syria and Iraq: all these factors indicate, according to Fatah officials, that there are some hidden intentions and plans that go beyond the idea of imposing a military and security control over Ain el Helweh.

“Concerned circles indicated that the events in Ain el Helweh are not mere regular clashes like the earlier rounds of fighting. The events that are currently taking place at the camp actually constitute a massive, open war, the military and security dimensions of which exceed the borders of the camp and spill over the entire Saida area including the city and its surroundings. Indeed, the displacement of large number of people from the camp towards the city of Saida in addition to the rapid expansion of the clashes…indicate that the regional engine has given a green light to the takfiri forces at Ain el Helweh to snatch the camp as well as Saida away. This is part of a plan and a scenario aiming at declaring a takfiri princedom on the Lebanese land, i.e. transferring the project of an Islamic princedom that was planned to be established in the capital of the north, Tripoli, to the capital of the south…

“Diplomatic circles in Beirut said that all the political, security related, and military givens indicate that the massive clashes taking place in Ain el Helweh between the Fatah and Islamic elements represent a serious security development in the context of the attempts carried out by the takfiri terrorists and their regional operations to raise the tension and confusion on the already tense Lebanese arena… The circles added that the Ain el Helweh battles fall in the context of the regional response to the Iranian nuclear agreement and the subsequent important political and military Hezbollah victories at the Qalamoun and Ersal barren areas’ battles…”

Written by nickbiddlenoe

August 27, 2015 at 3:00 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Atwan in Ra’y al-Yawm: first time in half century Palestinian resistance movement allowed to attack Israel from Syrian lands

Translated today by our from the website Ra’y al-Yawm.

Author: Editor Abd-al-Bari Atwan:

“…If Israeli accusations, through Binyamin Netanyahu himself, that the Islamic Jihad was behind the firing of those rockets are true, this would be a very important development. This is the first time in about half a century that a Palestinian resistance movement is allowed to carry out a military operation against Israeli targets from Syrian territory. It is also the first time since Ramadan [October] 1973 war that missiles fired from Syria land in the occupied Golan and the Galilee Panhandle…”

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

August 26, 2015 at 5:15 pm

Posted in Uncategorized


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