The Bir Abed Blast: Restrained message sent… but likely just the beginning

Many of us have been waiting for a bombing in the heart of Hizbullah’s main neighborhood for quite some time, including here on this blog over the last two years. Even before the Syria crisis this was a real possibility, taken very seriously by the Party. Indeed, it is quite  likely that the LAF and Hizbullah and other forces have disrupted plots just like the one that hit today – but it was inevitable given the porousness of Hizbullah’s spatial layout that one would get through, at least.

This bombing seems designed as a “rational” (though murderous, evil etc) attempt to rebalance calculations by hizbullah – as such, the target was not something which Hizbullah would be extremely hard pressed to restrain itself or its supporters from a massive outpouring of counter violence. Fadlallah’s mosque nearby, a real mass casualty attack or an attack on Amal targets/people (Birri for example): these are the types of targets that would signal a real “open” conflict and a far less rational/restrainable conflict.

The essential problem is that THE BOMBING WILL LIKELY NOT LEAD TO AN ADJUSTMENT of Hizbullah’s approach in Syria or Lebanon. As such, these coming days and weeks are more likely to see more attempts at larger attacks, and thus a wider open conflict.

This trajectory is but one of so many reasons why the West and its Allies were so stupid in meeting Assad’s initial violence with increasing counter violence coupled with exaggerated negotiating positions which were never reasonable or attractive or workable given the underlying balance of power or the nature of the regime and the resistance axis.

This is the path we have seen coming for almost two years – and it is set to get worst sadly.