Israeli lobbying effort against Lebanese Army will probably bear fruit in 2017
For those of us who have watched this issue for more than a decade, it is clear what is going on with the Israeli 1) issuance of maps of Hezbollah positions in the South last week alongside 2) media/diplomatic attacks on the Lebanese Army this week as having allowed weapons to slip to Hezbollah.
I wrote about the issues here in 2007 and 2008:
Very simply, 2017 and the Trump admin will likely bring a sea change in (among other areas) relations between Lebanon and the US. The Israelis will push for what they have long wanted: a pull back of (already extremely limited in terms of quality) support for the Lebanese Army viewed as a mere auxiliary of Hezbollah (an inaccurate assessment that misses the point and actually misses a great opportunity for diminishing Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon, ironically enough). The Trump admin will likely back this (in the context of a likely collapse in US-Iranian cooperation towards confrontation).
This is a small part of the coming overall disintegration at home and abroad, but nevertheless is instructive as to how harsh the lines will be, how even more central Israel claims will be for US policy, how oblique approaches of dealing with enemies and competitors will be summarily discarded… and how a Trump alignment with Russia and authoritarian regional regimes will be systematically separated from, and set against, the Iranian-Hezbollah (and perhaps Saudi-Gulf) axes.
This seems to be the direction we are headed, but options still exist ahead of January 20, 2017.