The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

The Yugoslavia solution for Syria is moving ahead

Sadly – but this war must be decelerated immediately.

Ceasefire, de facto partition and then a focus on Nusra and ISIS. Seems as if we are finally moving this way, though far far too late.

Translated by our Mideastwire.com today.

On February 29, the Rai al-Youm newspaper carried the following piece by Abdul Bari Atwan: “Since the Russian military intervention and the American silence regarding this intervention and the Russian raids, we had suspicions about the existence of a secret agreement between these two major countries, America and Russia, on  “some sort of a settlement” for the Syria crisis, an agreement that could have been possibly reached during the extensive meetings between the two countries’ foreign ministers, John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov. All our attempts and research to learn the nature and details of this agreement failed in light of the state of secrecy reigning over the past six months.

“The Russian officials recently took us by surprise as they started to pave the way for this settlement and for the preliminary final map of the agreed upon political and demographic situation. This was clearly highlighted by the statement that Sergei Ryabkov, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, made this Monday where he literally said: “We hope that the participants at the Syrian negotiations will reach the idea of establishing a federal republic.” He added during the press conference: “I think it is unlikely that the situation in Syria will unfold to a Kosovo-like scenario. Specific criteria must be laid out for the Syrian political structure in the future based on preserving the unity of the country’s lands including the establishment of a federal state through the negotiations.”

“This is a very dangerous statement in respect to the timing since it has been made two days following the launching of the ceasefire and also in respect to the importance of the man who made the statement: the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister. Based on these statements, one can conclude that the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister is ruling out the “Balkanization” of Syria and its dismantlement according to the Yugoslavia model that followed the death of Josip Tito, Yugoslavia’s founder and unifier. However, he is suggesting the sectarian Iraqi partitioning model rather than the Swiss model because the Iraqi model is closer.

“The U.S. Vice President, Joe Biden, was the first to speak about the establishment of an Iraqi federal union even before his country’s occupation of Iraq. U.S. President George Bush and his military commander in the country, Paul Bremer, implemented this plan at a later stage and they split Iraq on ethnic and sectarian basis into three entities: A Kurdish entity in the north, a Shi’i entity in the middle and south of the country and a Sunni entity in the west mainly Al-Anbar and Nineveh.

“The “federal Syria” will perhaps be divided according to the Iraqi model into a number of sectarian cantons including Sunni, Alawite, Druze and Kurdish cantons. There could be more than five cantons as per the statement of the Turkish deputy prime minister, which explains the Turkish concern and the present efforts aimed at eliminating the Islamic State from the east and to replace it by a Sunni entity in Al-Reqqah, Deir al-Zor and Al-Hassakeh in addition to enhancing the separatist tendency of the Kurds in the Syrian north thus establishing a strip along the northern Syrian borders adjacent to Turkey. Aleppo could constitute a Sunni “princedom” similar to its counterpart in the east in addition to another princedom in Deraa in the south, a fourth Druze one in Jabal al-Arab and a fifth or sixth Alawite one at the coast.

“Most if not all the ethnic, sectarian and dogmatic clashes that were launched in the world and where the two major countries, Russia and America, intervened were concluded with a political solution based on partitioning. This was the case in Korea, Vietnam, Sudan, Georgia, Yugoslavia, and currently Ukraine. Syria won’t be an exception although we do admit to the presence of some differences here and there.

“John Kerry, the U.S. Secretary of State, first detonated the Syria partitioning bomb as he said at the Congress a few days ago: “Perhaps it is too late to keep Syria united.” He further indicated the existence of a Plan B that can be applied in the event of the failure of the political solution and the collapse of the interim phase formula. We do not rule out the “scenario” that is currently being promoted, which consists of Saudi ground forces entering Syria from Jordan and proceeding towards the north in order to eliminate the Islamic State in Al-Reqqah, Deir al-Zor and Al-Hassakeh. This implies that Saudi Arabia could not only be informed of this scenario but also playing a main role in its implementation with the participation of other Arab countries while the North Thunder maneuvers could represent a preface for this operation.

“Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s representative at the United Nations, made some shocking statements where he criticized the positions of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and asked him to listen to the advices given to his country. In addition, Dmitry Peskov, a press spokesman on behalf of the Russian President, also stressed that “Russia and Syria similar but not fully matching points of view. There surely are some differences.” All this is causing us to believe that some sort of a Russian-American “dish” is being cooked and will be imposed on the Syrian president, his government and the armed opposition in the next months after getting rid of the radical jihadist groups that currently represent an obstacle to this dish.

“We don’t know how President Al-Assad will react to these “scenarios” that are being cooked behind closed doors and that are based on partitioning his country under the pretext of “federalism…” Partitioning Syria after Iraq on sectarian and ethnic basis means the dismantlement and modification of the region’s map in a way that serves Israel’s interest thus making [Israel] the only superior power in a weak Arab and Islamic milieu, one that is dismantled and drowning in sectarian and civil wars with Iraq being the best example to that…”

 

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

March 1, 2016 at 3:35 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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