Israeli Military assessment says Russian role constrains Hezbollah
This piece in JPost argues: “Russia’s intervention in Syria and close interaction with Hezbollah may actually decrease the likelihood of an Israel-Hezbollah conflict erupting in the near future, according to IDF assessments. For example, dialogue between Russia and Hezbollah could provide an opportunity to rein in Hezbollah responses to reported Israeli air strikes on weapons-trafficking runs in Syria. The assessments are part of a broader look at Israel’s strategic environment.”
I argued along these lines in Foreign Affairs here in October:
“Strange Bedfellows in Syria: Russian Intervention Could Constrain Iran and Hezbollah—and Help Israel”/Foreign Affairs, October 2015 (Subscriber only-accesible via Mideastwire Blog)
The problematic point is that even if we believe the military folks in Israel actually think this…. this does NOT mean that the Israeli political leadership acts wisely on this… at all.