The fracturing of Tunisia and ISIS’s “Southern Strategy”
We need to read the unrest and protests in Tunisia these past few days in the context of the economic terrorism that ISIS initiated last year, quite brilliantly (and maliciously of course).
The core idea is to exacerbate the longstanding, underlying economic and social strains in the South, Interior regions and border areas. This, combined with the mounting police corruption and heavy handed tactics (alongside the breakdown in consensual politics at the center), offers a perfect storm of factors that could leave the bottom and interior half of the country as a kind of “failed region” that is increasingly cut off from the coast and capital…. increasingly prone to militia and violent-Islamist dominance, and more overtly fractured from the rest of the country than already is the case.
This could be the start of this process, initiated last year in ISIS’s attacks.
My pieces discussing this recently: