Tunis attacks likely signal “Southern Strategy” push designed to fracture country
ON TUNIS: It seems increasingly likely that ISIS and Al-Qaeda, possibly in consort or separately are pursuing a “Southern Strategy” – with today’s attack but one tactic in this push. The idea is to fracture off the interior/border and southern areas – which already have multiple conflicts/grievances/fault lines – from the coastal/capital parts of Tunisia. The security sector response will be awful and inefficient – and could lead to what some of us hoped was unthinkable but which has always been there. That is, widescale repression, possibly even with Nahda targeted a la Egyptian dynamics.
A very bad day in Tunis with more bad days likely to come.
My piece on this a few weeks ago for Newsweek.