Frm Amb. Ford finally gets it: The Russian+Iranian position was existential in 2011+now; how did these guys mis-read dynamics so badly?
From a recent piece – we need a book length study on how so many mis read the Syrian situation so badly in 2011 and later. Also Andrew Tabler finally starts to see that he was wrong and “scratches his head:”
“…With regard to Vienna, let’s be honest,” former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford told a Middle East Institute conference Nov. 13. “The fundamental differences between outside players have not been resolved.
“I have seen no indication the Russians have moved an inch,” Ford said. “Everything they have said in 2015, I heard them say in 2011 and 2012. Same with the Iranians. If anything, the Iranians have ratcheted up a notch.”
For the political process to succeed, the parties have to “come to the table to make serious compromises,” Ford said. “I see no sign of compromise. Within Syria itself, I see nothing from the Syrian regime that it is prepared to compromise.”
“I don’t know how you would achieve what is outlined there, achieve a transition, changes of a constitution,” and plans for new elections, “unless the Iranians and the Russians turn the wrenches on the regime,” Andrew Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Al-Monitor in an interview Nov. 16.
“I am scratching my head about this as well,” Tabler said. “I think this is another example of when Kerry says, ‘The price of failure necessitates progress.’”