The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

“Mowing the Lawn” strategy might not work for Israel in near future/New Intel maps don’t have Syria anymore, instead orgs that are hard to understand and less affected by counter strikes/JPost admits: Nusra controls “most” of 100km strip in Golan with Israel!

On September 27 The Jerusalem Post website had an important piece entitled: Article by Yosi Melman: “A country Formerly Known as Syria.” Much the same could be said for the Americans!

Many important points to understand the dominant Israeli line:

“IDF Military Intelligence (MI) no longer uses the name Syria in referring to the territory and political entity that extends to the east of the Golan Heights. As far as the service is concerned, Syria as a state simply no longer exists. In the words of a senior intelligence officer, “An egg made into an omelet will never be an egg again.” One of the ideas floating around is to call the entity by its old Arab name al-Sham (Greater Syria), which is used in the Arab acronym Daesh, which translates as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Syria is not only the only country in an advanced state of disintegration. Some years back, the intelligence community started to reassess the chaotic reality emerging in the Middle East.

“Maps drawn up by MI’s Research Department show states being replaced by organizations.

“…In the past, Research Department analysts collected information on known leaders. Data was usually gleaned from open sources. Now, they try to gather material on shadowy warlords with obscure backgrounds. Sometimes, the researchers don’t even know the name of the chief of a particular terror group or don’t even have a description of him. It is an arduous mission to track the rapid changes in leadership and who controls what parcel of land.

“The regime of “President” Bashar Assad, a member of an Alawite clan, supported by its two major allies Iran and Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shi’ite movement, controls only 20 per cent of the territory. His fiefdom includes the capital Damascus, the coastal strip which is predominantly populated by Alawites (an ethnic sect of Shi’ite Islam), as well as a small strip in the south adjoining the border with Jordan.

“No wonder that MI calls Assad’s territory “Little Syria.” Assad is hardly more than the leader of his Alawite minority group.

“The Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of al-Qaida, which controls 10-15 per cent of non-contiguous parcels of Syrian real estate, is of special interest to the IDF. Together with some local militias Nusra is in charge of most of the 100-kilometre border with Israel on the Syria side of the Golan Heights. In recent years, Nusra slightly toned down its militant ideology due to the influence of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which provide it with financial support…”

“…According to military intelligence, none of the parties involved in the Syrian conflict -Assad, Iran, Nusra and not even ISIS -have any interest in creating tension on the Israeli-Syrian and Israeli-Lebanese borders. All of them are involved in their own battles and have more immediate enemies than Israel.

Nevertheless, the concern remains that even a minor incident could escalate into a major confrontation that no one is interested in.”

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

October 2, 2015 at 3:53 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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