A few predictions of Assad’s imminent collapse 2011-2013; Crisis Group’s role & new turn calling for US-led bombing in Syria
Although I think it has become possible for a sudden regime collapse in Syria this year or next (depending on several variables of course) the 2011-2013 predictions of a regime collapse were not only highly unlikely at the time and wrong, but they also help to create a range of bad expectations and bad policies.
My piece on how Crisis Group contributed to all this via its July 2011 report on the Syrian regime’s “Slow-motion Suicide” will be coming out tomorrow. It includes a linked critique of the new ICG report which very regrettably now has the conflict mitigation group calling for adding more layers of conflict to the Syria war via a US-led bombing campaign.
Below are just a few of the countless predictions.
July 15th 2011
“Israeli defense officials said in a recent analysis it’s just a matter of time before Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime falls. This line echoes comments by Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who last month told Haaretz he thought Assad’s regime would fall within several months. ”
August 18, 2011
“Syrian President Bashar Assad “is on his way out” and “the balance has shifted” in favor of his departure, senior administration officials said Thursday after President Obama issued a statement calling on the authoritarian leader to resign.
His “days are numbered,” concurred the trio of officials, who offered their assessments in a background conference call following Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s televised remarks elaborating the president’s position.”
“Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish Prime Minister, has warned President Bashar al-Assad that his days as Syrian leader were numbered and he cannot remain in power indefinitely through military force. ”
July 8th, 2012
“Secretary of State Clinton has again stated that it is only a matter of time before the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad collapses. Speaking in Tokyo to reporters, she said: “The sand is running out of the hourglass,” and went on to say, “There is no doubt that the opposition is getting more effective in their defense of themselves and in going on the offense against the Syrian military and the Syrian government’s militias. So the future, to me, should be abundantly clear to those who support the Assad regime: the days are numbered.”
13 Dec, 2012
“Abc’s senior foreign affairs correspondent martha raddatz on the end game and what danger it poses for the united states. Reporter: It could all end soon here in damascus. With the startling word from nato and now even president assad’s staunch ally russia that the brutal dictator’s days are numbered.”
15 Jan 2013
Despite his bravado, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad’s days are numbered, and he knows it. The latest reports suggest that he’s living on a warship in the Mediterranean Sea and that he’s being protected by the Russians:”