The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

TRANSLATED: Who will attack first when it comes to the Lebanon-Syria border

One does wonder if all the discussion about “post snow melt” battles is overdone…. we will see shortly it seems.

Translated today by

On March 12, the Ad-Diyyar daily newspaper carried the following report: “Day after day, and as the snow is melting away and springtime is getting closer, reports are increasingly alluding to the imminent battles that will break within the few upcoming weeks on several locations along the Lebanese-Syrian borders. These battles will see a confrontation between the Lebanese army units on one hand and the different groups of armed fighters deployed in the eastern chain on the other hand. These battles will also be paralleled by attacks to be carried out by the Syrian army supported by the Hezbollah fighters from within Syria towards the Lebanese borders. So are these reports credible?

“According to well-informed sources, one cannot say for sure that there will be decisive and imminent battles and one cannot provide precise dates for such battles for several reasons: First, the military targets of the concerned parties, i.e. the Lebanese and the Syrian armies and Hezbollah as well as the armed groups fighting the Syrian regime, are either un-similar or even conflicting at some instances. This will limit the possibility of a wide coordination between these forces and thus the possibility of a unified military operation.

“Second, the talk about an imminent attack to be carried out by the Lebanese army or the Syrian army and Hezbollah to repel the “takfiri threat” clashes with the talk about the armed groups’ preparations for attacks aimed at invading and controlling some Lebanese towns… Third, there is talk about an imminent attack by the Lebanese army against the armed groups’ locations in the barren areas concomitantly with an attack by the Syrian army supported by Hezbollah from the other side in order to corner the armed groups. However, this scenario calls for a security coordination in the highest of levels under a clear political cover. This has so far not been the case and there are no indications that it might be achieved anytime soon.

“Fourth, the talk about preparations that the armed groups are making to launch a sudden attack with the aim of breaking their seclusion and the siege against them, controlling areas inside Lebanon and thus imposing a new status quo clashes with all the field reports indicating the presence of major differences between these armed groups that are deployed along the borders in addition to the presence of a major discrepancy when it comes to their priorities and future plans.

“Based on the above, and regardless of the many rumors propagated by the different media outlets, the well-informed sources stressed that the border front will definitely not be stable. However, there are so far no signs indicating that this front will be seeing a decisive “bone breaking” battle in the upcoming few weeks or even any preemptive attack by any of the conflicting parties. The same sources added that some geographically limited military operations with specific field targets are rather expected to take place…”


Written by nickbiddlenoe

March 13, 2015 at 1:21 am

Posted in Uncategorized

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