The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

UNIFIL get ready: Increasing discussion in Beirut-Israeli “response” via Nusrah+rebels inpush from S. Syria into Sunni S. Leb+Bekaa Areas

As always – whether true or not is a different issue – this is likely a major upcoming factor in the strategic thinking it seems nevertheless… and a continuation of what I would argue will emerge as a major theme and a major new flashpoint: Israeli-Rebel-Nusrah coordination/support against Hizbullah and putting direct pressure on Hizbullah-Syria-Iran in the golan/southern syria AND yes…. South Lebanon.

Translated by today:

On February 3, the Lebanon Debate news website carried the following report: “Several questions are being raised about the nature of the potential Israeli response to Hezbollah, which managed to impose new equations following its latest operation in the Shebaa Farms last week. Well-informed sources spoke to Lebanon Debate about the possible Israeli response, which will “probably consist of asking the An-Nusra Front for launching a major attack from the Syrian Quneitra in the direction of the Lebanese Shebaa thus reaching the Lebanese South and launching a massive offense into the Lebanese lands.”

“The sources added: “The attack starting from Shebaa will reach the Druze villages in Rashaya, Kfarkouk, and Iha where violent battles are expected to take place. If An-Nusra manages to cross these villages, it will get in direct touch with Sunni villages hosting Syrian refugees’ camps in Karaoun, Bar Elias, Jeb Jannin, and Kfar Zabad. This will provide the attacking groups with a major nurturing environment allowing them to barricade themselves in these villages and to militarily pressure the city of Zahleh.”

“The sources added: “If this attack succeeds, it will allow the armed groups to accomplish two military achievements: first, to block the supply road from the Bekaa to the South and vice versa – this is Hezbollah’s supply road from and to Syria – and second, to connect An-Nusra’s power regions from Quneitra to Zabadani and to encircle the Syrian capital, Damascus, from the western side thus placing it under the line of fire.”

“The sources indicated that “the military operation carried out by the Syrian army and Hezbollah around the area of Zabadani and Qousaya in order to encircle that area aims at trying to carry out a pre-emptive military operation because they [i.e. the Syrian army and Hezbollah] are expecting the above-mentioned scenario. This will prevent the outcome that could be achieved [by An-Nusra] following the control of the Bekaa, i.e. the outcome of encircling Damascus from the west. This will also cause the attackers to become cornered from the Syrian side…”

“The sources believe that “the masses that are being mobilized in the area indicate the presence of the intention to carry out this scenario since An-Nusra and its allies in the eastern chain have mobilized some 14,000 fighters in addition to another mass that has been mobilized in the Quneitra area. There are also attempts at keeping the Syrian army busy with other battles and fronts in order to push this army to retract part of its forces from this governorate. However, this did not happen.”

“…According to the same sources, “this scenario has been expected a while ago and the preparations are underway in order to confront it. Hezbollah will not accept that the road of the south be blocked. This will call for a major battle in order to prevent any infiltration or in order to re-gain control over the villages that might fall as a result of the military pressure…”

Written by nickbiddlenoe

February 3, 2015 at 11:19 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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