The new red lines in Golan that may lead to war are based on mutual Israeli, Hezbollah concerns
An excellent article in the leftist As-Safir daily here (translated today by Mideastwire.com) by Wassef Awada who makes this point: “The equation is a simple one: For Israel, it is forbidden to gradually turn the Golan Front into a Resistance front. At the same time, for the Resistance axis, it is forbidden to establish a new security belt along the Syrian borders. Based on this equation, one can understand the nature of the conflict that might lead to a full-fledged war…”
— Analysts and policymakers must come to grips with Hizbullah’s emerging concern, one which we have seen amplified in recent days, about an Israeli-rebel (especially Nusrah) alliance in Golan that recreates the old “security belt” of south lebanon, but now in the golan, when the IDF allied with and created the SLA (South Lebanon Army) – which included MANY shiites of course just like the new perceived alliance has many Muslims.
This is a major challenge for Hizbullah and one which, as perceived, stretches BEYOND the golan to the great question that is boiling here: Could the Israelis imagine and engage in an alliance with various syrian rebel factions, including Takfiri/AQ groups, along the spine of the anit-lebanon mountain range? Even if this is too much, the perceived move by the Israelis in just the golan has been set up, it seems, as a red line.
Likewise, Israel cannot allow Hizbullah and Iran to extend their offensive and defensive formations that exist in south Lebanon and southern mount lebanon range to the golan.
The smartest move – to speculate: Hizbullah does NOT attack the Israelis as “retribution,” but is the bedrock part of a syrian army-led offensive in the south that pushes out the alleged collaborators and the potential threat of the security belt. We will see.