The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Nasrallah a few days before IAF strike: “Nasrallah warns Israel against any “stupid” moves in Lebanon, Syria”

The Akhbar headline is particularly poignant today,

Nasrallah warns Israel against any “stupid” moves in Lebanon, Syria

1) We should leave aside the chicken and egg argument of who is to blame for the Syria mess if we want to find solutions to de-escalate the conflict.

2) Israel apparently launched its strike directly as a part of its very rational strategy of deterrence, especially since hizbullah fighters have attacked the IDF from the area of the Syria Golan, and Nasrallah has threatened escalation in that region(one could discuss other motives – the elections, relations with rebels, Nusra etc, but these aspects are far less clear and likely). That is all well and good, but the question this weekend and now is this: Is it not an incredibly dangerous turn given the overall situation, and given Nasrallah’s comment JUST the other day, to engage in such an attack right now… It seems to me that the obvious answer would be that right now is not an ideal time to engage in military action that has so many possibilities of miscalculation, contingency mistake etc…. and in the end, well, it SEEMS that is what happened.

Did the IDF know who they were targeting – probably not…. When Hizbullah engages in a “reprisal” raid are they sure the damage will not rise to a certain level where the Israeli politicians won’t escalate too far? They cannot be.

Such is the very dangerous ground that we are now moving deeper into – as if the region needed more.

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

January 19, 2015 at 5:47 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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