The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Get ready for the next Islamic State to be declared….In North Africa

We have been translating a number of pieces over the last few months that focus on the emerging debate by sunni jihadists in the Maghreb/North Africa about whether to declare and join ISIS or whether a separate caliphate should be declared.

The bottom line as this excellent Al-Akhbar article makes clear: 1) It is only a matter of time before there is such a declaration, 2) it will ONLY buttress the chaos, contingency and far-flung danger that was originally spawned by the disasterous decision by the Obama administration to allow our allies to militarize the Syria conflict in mid 2011 and, 3) Tunisia will likely come under sustained attack from three sides, west, east and south, 4) Algeria’s insurgency will grow and both Egypt and Morocco will likely feel increased pressure from the insurgency/New IS on the eastern and westn sides of this IS formation.

Very bad news in the offing seems likely for north africa, leading to a greater sense in the US especially that MORE intervention is necessary – which will only accelerate a wider collapse of the tenuous existing security architecture.

Time to partition Syria on de facto lines with the non-ISIS forces and thereby stabilize a deal with the murderous Bashar who gets to “stay” (in this formula, Turkey would stand to gain a number of objectives while losing the main one: Bashar out)…. force a KSA-Iran rapprochment (we do have leverage with KSA and can force/lubricate a deal, especially if yeman stabilization is a part of that carrot for KSA) and allow for a post US election, nuclear deal with Iran to come into effect one way or another – with or without the US senate as is possible to a great extent.

Once these high level sources of conflict are mitigated, then and ONLY then can ISIS be effectively countered.. now also possibly in North Africa as well!

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

October 23, 2014 at 9:05 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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