The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Israeli analyst suggests Hizbullah is worried about Hamas performance; Acknowledges wide targeting of MILITARY sites in 2006 and by Hamas NOW

This Israeli analyst, with the curiously or poorly named, tel-aviv based “levantine group,” attempts to make the claim that Hizbullah is disappointed or frustrated by Hamas’s performance.

I strongly disagree after two weeks of interviews here in Beirut with a wide range of officials from all sides including hizbullah. Indeed, why should the party by “disappointed?”

Hamas is trying to do the impossible by fighting on essentially a small beach of territory some few kilometers wide, with ZERO depth, with rockets that pale in comparison to both the AMOUNT and TYPE that hizbullah possesses (the swarm effect and the better tech is what Hizbullah is likely banking on for the next conflict , even if davids sling is introduced).

Bottom line: Hamas’s fight now is NOT being viewed as anything close to a test run of the next Hizbullah-Israel war.

One useful thing this analyst says however: he acknowledges something which is largely NEVER reported on but which is crucial to analysing the balance of power in the region. Hamas is mimicking Hizbullah’s approach to target MILITARY installations as a key aspect of their campaign. From al-monitor:


At the outset of the conflict, Hamas attempted a “shock and awe campaign,” including tunnel-borne kidnapping raids under the Israeli border, navel commando incursions and drone attacks meant to degrade Israeli morale. According to experts who spoke to Al-Monitor, this is the same strategy that Hezbollah would likely employ in the first days of a future conflict with Israel. Israel thwarted all of Hamas’ surprises, including the armed drone incursion.

Hamas’ rocket infrastructure, meanwhile, is now nearly identical to that of Hezbollah’s in Lebanon, apart from the smaller numbers and sophistication of projectiles. Unlike past conflicts, most of Hamas’ rocket launchers are concealed under the sands of Gaza or in sensitive civilian areas, with local cells using motorcycles to dart between firing positions. One can imagine that Hezbollah is watching how a frustrated Hamas repeatedly fails in its attempts to confuse and overwhelm Israel’s air-defense Iron Dome system with coordinated rocket barrages over large areas at a time. While the media is restricted from reporting such attacks, it has been widely claimed by Hamas that many of their rockets have been fired toward the vicinity of key air force bases of Tel Nof, Hatzor, Hatzerim and Nevatim in an attempt to hit runways and stifle Israeli air force bombing. During the 2006 conflict, Hezbollah focused much of its fire on hitting the Ramat David air base in northern Israel’s Jezreel Valley, hitting the runway in at least one instance.

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

July 18, 2014 at 7:25 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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