The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Hizbullah gains back measure of detterance power with new strategic ambiguity

With the last three strikes against Israel it is now fairly clear that Hizbullah has and is using a “reasonable” avenue for calibrating the balance of terror with its main enemy. Look at how below, with the golan front and the mess/contingency in syria, hezbollah has a decent means now to hurt israel when it engages in limited attacks on Hezbollah and still maintain a degree of plausible deniability.

This tool has only recently matured. It is of course something like good news for preventing the next hizbullah-israel war.

But again, too much contingency, too much of a desire to finish the other off on both sides, too much hubris and too many opportunities for things getting out of hand … or having another Shlomo Argov, in my view, to last.

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Analysts linked the escalation in border tensions to a February 24 air strike on a Hizbullah position in Lebanon, close to the Syrian border, which a security source said had targeted “weapons sent from Syria to Hizbullah”.

Hizbullah openly blamed Israel and vowed to respond.

“Hizbullah is the first name that comes to mind when trying to figure out who masterminded (Tuesday’s) roadside attack,” a Jerusalem Post editorial said, while admitting that nothing was certain in war-torn Syria.

“The country has deteriorated into a free-for-all fire zone the likes of which even this erratic region has never known. It has become an arena for every terrorist group.”

Writing in Yediot Aharonot, Middle East expert Guy Bechor said that responsibility for the Golan attack was far from clear, and may not rest with either Hizbullah or the Damascus regime.

“Assad controls approximately a fifth of his country and most of our border is no longer under his control but under that of the various rebels, mostly Sunni jihadists,” he wrote.

“Hizbullah, like the Syrian regime, is up to its ears in fighting deep inside Syria. The Israeli border isn’t an area that is controlled by Hizbullah, but by Salafist rebels,” he said.

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

March 20, 2014 at 1:10 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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