The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Another Redline, falling: Transfer of weapons to Hizbullah…. the geopolitical border has already fallen

One of the least discussed, but perhaps most vital field developments of the past few months, and especially the past few weeks, is that Israel has yet another serious problem on its hand vis-a-vis Hizbullah: With Hizbullah fighting in Syria, and “reports” and speculations and off record comments from Hizbullah “sources” saying a counter strike would likely come from WITHIN syria, but with Hizbullah manpower and expertise and command and control, there is no longer really an effective distinction between Syria and so called Hizbullah controlled areas when considered from several angles.

This means the geo-political discourse long pursued by the Israelis to keep things contained – i.e. if syria transfers advanced weapons to Hizbullah IN LEBANON, then this could lead (and has led in syria at least!) to an Israeli strike(s), is all effectively dead as both an effective deterrent and as a tactic of international relations.

Hizbullah is fighting IN SYRIA

Hizbullah now presumably has access (or easy pathways should push come to shove) to most if not all weaponry in sryia

There is no longer as much of a NEED to “transfer” material to Lebanon proper. Indeed, it is much more attractive now for Hizbullah to exercise its hard power against Israel and the US VIA SYRIA, not least for the plausible deniability of it all!

This means that Israel’s potential “hot” areas of conflict and threat now decidedly extend with Hizbullah (as well as the regime of course) through syria AND lebanon.

What does this mean for the Israeli threats, for their posture and for their planning – much less the justification in international forums? It’s not a comfortable picture.

Should the US strike Syria and a focused response comes from southern syria into OCCUPIED territory it will be very hard to blame Hizbullah even though they would likely be involved at this point. Harder still will be convincing potentials allies in Lebanon that a strike WITHIN Lebanon is warranted (and lets leave aside international law, the UN etc).

The bottom line is the active battlefield has extended in an unprecedented way over the last year for Israel when just considering Hizbullah, only. This has weakened its position with its bitter enemy and given Hizbullah a range of new surprises available for the party to use in the field, at home with various constituencies and internationally.

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

September 5, 2013 at 9:05 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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