The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Khamene’i’s red lines vs. Obama’s red lines – a “Must Read” Al-Monitor article

Well it has finally come to this…. sadly since this situation of course could have been averted if the far far stronger power – the US – had forged a grand bargain with its far far weaker adversary – primarily syria in 2000 and of course iran in 2003… and Hizbullah in 2005

[read:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/opinion/28noe.html?ref=opinion

http://old.tcf.org/publications/2009/3/pb685

]

No matter: a great read in Al-Monitor.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/08/hezbollah-react-us-strike-syria-iran.html

This article sounds roughly correct in my view in assessing Hizbullah’s stance right now.

The problem – among many – is that even if US policymakers and the military “get it right” and somehow thread this very tight needle and fall within the safe zone of not provoking a massive escalation – as the article and may other sources now make clear is THEORETICALLY POSSIBLE – this is anything but a clean model context for testing out theories that depend on some many things to go exactly right!

The key point: There are simply too many actors on ALL side who want things to go wrong, push over boundaries etc.

This means that although in theory it is possible for a limited US strike to not entail escalation and regional war – and in theory it could offer some measure of deterrence while also exhausting the energies of the Resistance Axis to a degree that MAY pave the way towards a negotiated solution, especially if the US axis relaxes its position somewhat – this is just very very unlikely to work out!

When you have elements – strong elements – on all sides pushing for a clarifying war – Saudis of course, Gulfies (some), some in the Israeli establishment, some in Washington, some in turkey, many in Al-Qaeda, many in the FSA linked groups, some in Assad’s clique, some in Hizbullah, some in Iran…..and even possibly some in russia and china – well all of this means the chances of not opening the pandora’s box of a great war are slim at best.

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

September 3, 2013 at 6:10 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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