The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Stephan Biddle Just Does Not Get It: Terrorist response is the last thing to worry about in this next Great War

Stephan Biddle could not have looked more detached from the realities of the region sitting, as he was, in a nice Washington office on Jazeera.

Remember Biddle’s masterful work which managed to divine Hizbullah’s INTENTIONS in the july 2006 war with literally ONE footnote reference to a speech/statement by anyone in Hizbullah – no joke, ONE nasrallah quote in the 200 plus pages!…

The 2006 Lebanon Campaign and the Future of Warfare: Implications for Army and Defense Policy

He said the following today:

“my hunch is that they will talk more and kill less” after a strike.

Amazing that this passes as serious analysis.

He amazingly did not even mention 1) the Samson Option of the regime and/or its allies pulling the house down on everyone if the scale of the strike is high enough (via WMDs and/or involving Israel etc) nor does he even mention 2) the EASE by which the Resistance Axis actors can and likely will provoke/bait Israel into entering the war some of the Israeli leaders desperately want as a means to smash hizbullah (and possibly Iran).. not to mention Assad. (and that some in the Resistance axis equally want.)

But what he really fails to realize in this is that the Axis response – the highly likely deepening of a great conflict in the Holy Land – goes way way beyond mere terrorist responses around the globe (he talked about embassy attacks in a serious way!).

Biddle and many analysts who know little directly about the actors – the “bad guys” – does not realize that a substantial US-led attack will provoke a substantial counter-attack.

This will go way beyond terrorism: with the holy land involved, several of the actors having real WMD capabilities, a deep and historical hatred of each other, and a cocktail of actors willing and able to provoke whatever they want… AND the entire region literally on fire… how could ANYONE be comfortable that this will be a nice CNN war, or a “terrorism” case or two…. or even the JULY 2006 war?

More on these points more coherently tomorrow.


Written by nickbiddlenoe

August 28, 2013 at 10:10 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

%d bloggers like this: