The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

The “new” militant Sunni strategy: Squeeze opponents on 5 fronts, watch them get stretched and press the attack

For years, journalists would ask if lebanon was about to descend into another civil war. The answer was always of course, no, since the balance of power on the field was radically in favor of Hizbullah and its allies.

Syria, and the obtuse weaponazation campaign of the ultra democratic gulfie regimes (aided and abetted by the US, europe etc), has of course changed all this in the wake of Assad’s stupid, brutal campaign of extermination.

What is evident today is the militant sunni strategy is to push on five axes against Hizbullah and Syria (militant sunnis dont really like fighting Iran directly, one should note, since they know very well how close there funders are to a much more capable foe):

1) North/tripoli

2) Bekaa and syria border regions

3) sidon and nominally beirut – but the palestinian camps are key

4) in Syria of course

5) in the islamic sphere regionally (i.e. the cairo meeting effect)

It is a very smart strategy, very dangerous and violent but brilliant in 1) stretching the Lebanese army way to thin to the breaking point, stretching hizbullah further and then boring in at key weak points.

On point 5) – We just returned from southern tunisia and SOME sunnis, self-identified, are talking now as if iran IS ABOUT TO INVADE TUNISIA…. as though Hizbullah and the shiites are everywhere waiting to re-emerge from their 1000 year old slumber in the country.

The sectarian card is even more powerful and far flung than I thought – its shocking really and driving forward violence and militancy here, even within the ranks and circles of “moderate” parties here.

In this sense, one lesson we have learned already during our Tunis Exchange program is that the conflict in tunisia is NOT really between secular vs/ islamist or radical secularist vs. salafist. It is between pragmatists who can mobilize toelerance and compromise even in heated environments and those who dispense with such an approach out of hand.

Written by nickbiddlenoe

June 24, 2013 at 7:27 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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