The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

War will be exceedingly hard to stop at this point/Hizbullah stepped out as a major power

The multiple indications that war and/or a major attack regarding syria is imminent are all around. The critical point is that this was always where things were going to end up if the US and Team Obama pursued the policy they did – benign neglect mixed with aggression on the part of quite undemocratic, frankly sinister allies in the region.

We know that the neo-liberalcon position that things would always end up here was RIGHT but for the WRONG reason: they advocated a stupid war very very early on and said if there was not war early things would end badly.

We also know some “liberal” thinkers/tankers were really wrong about predicting/advocating for a “controlled collapse.” It was NEVER likely.

If this got extended and pushed, then a final confrontation was all that would happen.

So now Obama finally must decide if he wants a huge war in the middle east, with ripple effects and possibly major consequences beyond.

He cant wiggle out of this one.

Indeed, that leads to the core problem: Obama’s team does not have the courage to avoid a war by altering their negotiating position. For sure they are now sending messages to Assad and Russia that an attack is imminent and it is time to agree to most of the US-backed demands. They will NOT soften their demands – surely not after the declaration of chemical weapons use.

This will not offer a feasible framework for talks and de-escalation, quite simply.

Obama should really consider what Hizbullah SEEMS to have been able to achieve on the ground: IN A FEW SHORT DAYS, they changed the pace and facts on the ground – CHANGED THE WHOLE discourse in fact.

This move has been nothing short of extraordinary.

It may provoke the US, and this may lead to disaster all around, but tactically what Hizbullah achieved was certainly parallel to what other “small” powers like it greatest foe Israel used to achieve – before the decline evident on the 2006 war.

Be very very careful Obama: the people itching for war are not the fighters in it.

 

 

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

June 14, 2013 at 12:48 am

Posted in Uncategorized

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