The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Rocket attacks in the Southern Suburbs opening salvo in an even more wide open conflict.. unless there is a political solution and political courage

I have written here on the blog about the prospects of this type of provocation for some time – a violent attack on Hizbullah’s heartland ostensibly by a sectarian side (although do not discount false flag operations here of course!). Like the great regional conflict that is approaching, I just thought it would have happened earlier.

The main point is that since the end of the July War in August 2006, the underlying dynamics auguring for another, climactic conflict have been very strong. Virtually nothing “positive” has diminished that trend line, sadly, in part because of a total lack of courage on the part of the preponderent power – The Obama Administration.

Unless the preponderant powers step back from the brink and realize there is a far better way to deal with the Resistance Axis rather than through direct violence and pressure – and that the gross imbalance of power in favor of the US and its allies reasonably allows for such a “strategy of appeasement” – then what we saw today in the suburbs will only expand, the circle of direct conflict will only expand, and that climactic war which seemed inevitable in 2006 and which was likely to have happened over these past two years… well, it will come to pass.

Summer is upon us – the fighting season, right?

The last vestiges of fear over Mutually Assured Destruction – which restrained all sides from starting the war some of them very much want, including Israel – are now dropping, especially on the hard pressed Resistance Axis side.

Hackneyed phrases about only needing a spark to set it all off are sadly reality.

I am fairly sure Hizbullah is well prepared for the coming multi front war – is Israel? Is the US? Is Turkey?

Is KSA and the wonderful oil mafia states ready?

It is time for all the smart analysts I have met in DC who actually work in government, to let their principals know that a bold political risk needs to be taken, but that the risk will be worth it as the consequences of this continued path are simply terrible.

Written by nickbiddlenoe

May 26, 2013 at 1:31 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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