The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Bad Arguments on Iraq War: Without the invasion it could have = the Syria War

Tony Blair and others are today trying to use the civil war in syria as a last reason why their decision to invade Iraq made some semblance of sense. If we had not invaded, it would have been awful anyway (although at this point of course the pain and suffering even n syria has been far less than in Iraq)… goes the argument.

In short – Iraq would likely have looked nothing like syria now if there had not been an invasion.

Iraq had almost no allies, major enemies ALL around, and had essentially no rationale motivating it and breathing some version of reason into it by 2003.

Like it or not, the Resistance Axis concept is an important underpinning of the Assad regime, to this day two years later – as is the russian and chinese factor, Iran, Hizbullah etc etc.

The Arab revolts would very likely have come to Iraq – perhaps even sooner if the US and others had restrained themselves in using brute force, but pushed the multiple levers of pressure that existed intelligently and patiently. If Iran had not been stupidly rebuffed post “axis of evil” speech and had been engaged sincerely, well, the pressure would have been formidable indeed.

Violence there would have been, but it is clear that Saddam had very very few of the anchors of power to inflict violence that are in abundance for Assad, even now.


Written by nickbiddlenoe

March 19, 2013 at 11:10 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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