The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Hizbullah Victory in Gaza: Hamas achievement is akin to 1996 “April Understanding”

One should wait for Nasrallah’s speech post ceasefire…. but undoubtedly, for hizbullah this day is a giant confirmation of Nasrallah’s public vision of the future of the region – one that began “modestly” JUST LIKE HAMAS’s fight today –  in 1992/1993 – with Operation Accountability by the IDF. This was when Nasrallah coined the term “a balance of terror” specifically in regards to the Katyusha rocket.

OF COURSE – the kill ratio was always ridiculous. But just like Hizbullah steadily used the teleology of technology in its favor to chip away at this ratio (and look at the ratio and total hits for Hamas now vis a vis 2008/2009 war – an INCREDIBLE difference), so to is hamas working quite “well” along this path.

Indeed – I would argue that Hamas is moving far faster than hizbullah ever did in this direction – in re jiggering the balance of terror/power.

In the end, hamas has almost gotten as good as Hizbullah got from Warren Christopher in the famous 1996 April Understanding: recognition bordering more than ever on the legalistic, new balance of terror/power, legitamacy, and crucially A STRONG MESSAGE TO ITS HOME POPULATION/CONSTITUENCY that it can work well, that its formulas ARE IMPROVING and that the strategy of balance of terror is better than the abbas/hariri approach.

I suspect that Abbas will got the way of Rafik Hariri – HARNESS THE new balance of terror towards his preferred ends and process – which hamas will have no problem with – but leave this balance of terror moving in the favor of hamas, which helps in the negotiations with the israelis (or so it seems to the arab and islamic spheres….)

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

November 22, 2012 at 5:07 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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