The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

The chemical weapons nightmare in syria – does this look like the much beloved “controlled collapse” is still reasonable?

Walid Jumblatt laughed at me in June for raising the WMD contingency in Syria – the result of a stupid policy to increase, or allow an increase – of violence in Syria in order to bring about a “controlled collapse” – something I have argued is NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE in Syria. He said the Americans would probably easily manage it…. most journos IGNORED the issue until about three months ago – a bit late – and… well forget the peace and conflict mitigation analysts who got SA FAR AHEAD OF THEMSELVES they wrote about “the day after” scenarios.

Well finally we read this in the New York Times – A harbinger of things to come…. and a devastating ADDED element to a region that looks about to be on fire in so many theaters:

Pentagon Says 75,000 Troops Might Be Needed to Seize Syria Chemical Arms

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon has told the Obama administration that any military effort to seize Syria’s stockpiles of chemical weapons would require upward of 75,000 troops, amid increasing concern that the militant group Hezbollahhas set up small training camps close to some of the chemical weapons depots, according to senior American officials.

The estimated size of the potential effort, provided to the White House by the military’s Central Command and Joint Staff, called into question whether the United States would have the resources to act quickly  if it detected  the movement of chemical weapons and forced President Obama, as he said in August, to “change my calculus” about inserting American forces into Syria. So far Mr. Obama has avoided direct intervention into the most brutal civil conflict to emerge from the Arab Spring uprisings,  and the Pentagon assessment was seen as likely to reinforce that reluctance


Written by nickbiddlenoe

November 16, 2012 at 4:55 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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