Wissam al-Hassan Assasinated
Whether one believes or not that Hizbullah has knowledge and/or actively supports these types operations that seem to be tied to the Assad regime (the Samaha Affair, the Harri assassination, attempt on Gaegae’s life, all the M14 assassinations etc), a MAJOR reason arguing against their involvement, but particularly in today’s murder, is Nasrallah’s indirectly expressed fear over the last 9 months that events, reactions to the syrian regime and the brutal and irrational syrian regime itself are all moving fast out of the influence or rational control of Hizbullah. The fear of chaos is growing for Hizbullah which doctrinally hates chaos and usually seems to be hurt in pursuing its main goals when there is chaos (quite opposite for the syrian state under the assads)
Nasrallah knows – and just warned last week – that the direct, tactile reaction to hizbullah is very likely coming soon. Today’s murder significantly increases that liklihood – one which already rose as a result of FSA threats in recent weeks to directly bomb hizbullah areas/neighborhoods.
It could only take a small decision by small actors or a few people – not even a “regional permission/directive.” On top of this easy danger, such a reaction was until the last few months, rather unlikely since there were no easy supply lines and no sanctuaries to retreat to and hold. There was only grievance and relatively little political horizon for executing an operation.
These two critical factors which have held back military/terrorist reactions to Hizbullah – and held back “the next civil war” – are now essentially removed. The grievance is only stronger. There are now plenty of weapons, money and desire to fight a civil war against Hizbullah. In fact there is now strategic depth in the North of lebanon and around the “liberated” areas on the border.
Sadly – all of the ingredients for a reaction and then open fighting are now finally in place.
A final question – how does this affect the aoun-nasrallah alliance?