The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Giora Eiland – architect of Dahiye doctrine – still cannot see how a more violent approach in 2006 was an even worse idea

Giora Eiland, the IDF intellectual and architect of the dahiye doctrine has this in a new INSS brief called “Think Before You Act”

— Look here how he totally leaves out the July 2006 War! As we now know, especially with the help of wikileaks, the stupid and brutal July 2006 war, combined with the obtuse Bush/Feltman approach of constant force and pressure rather than oblique suffocation, is EXACTLY why Giora’s prediction came true. This is the great IR lesson of the cedar revolution: the “beg” outcomes that happened were largely the result of a poor strategy by the US and Israel… they had both syria and Hizbullah badly pressed against the wall and went for total victory over “total evil.” This is why Giora turned out to be “right.” But he cannot see that…

HE WRITE – “Israel was a silent partner to the process of Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon and after an internal debate in government circles enthusiastically supported it. The main question was, is Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon good for Israel? There were those (I among them) who thought that the move was not favorable to Israel. Strangely, Israel and Syria had an interest in a Syrian presence in Lebanon for three reasons. First, the Syrians in Lebanon served as a restraining force, and they were the condition for ensuring that if Israel reached an agreement with Syria, it would also include Lebanon, and Syria would not be able to evade responsibility. Second, it was not at all clear that moderate democratic forces would be strengthened by a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, and it was possible that other forces would grow stronger. This is what actually happened, and Hizbollah and Iran have filled the void left by Syria. Third, the moment that Syria ostensibly gave up Lebanon, its focus would be on the Golan Heights. Those who opposed negotiations with Syria over the Golan Heights believed that it was preferable for Syria to fight over its hold in Lebanon and not to focus on the battle for the Golan Heights….”

“…Syria’s departure from Lebanon caused people in Israel to think that perhaps Israel would reap the benefits of the withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, at least indirectly, five years after the fact: the IDF was no longer in Lebanon, the Syrians were hated, the Syrians were leaving Lebanon, and Lebanon would be a pro-Western, democratic country. This hope was quickly extinguished. Hizbollah actually took the place of Syria, and from this point of view, the situation in Lebanon is certainly worse than it was expected to be.

“…In 2006, Israel was given all the tools to place the conflict on the diplomatic level. Hizbollah was not just another organization, but part of the parliament. It was part of the regime in Lebanon, part of the government, and therefore Israel saw the Lebanese government as responsible for the fire directed from its country and could respond accordingly. This was the great missed opportunity of the Second Lebanon War: Israel defined the enemy in a manner that was too restrictive. If from the outset Israel had seen Lebanon and not only Hizbollah as the enemy, it would have been possible for this war to be much shorter, and the deterrence achieved at war’s end would also have been more successful than it is today…”

Ha ha ha…. Sadly Giora cannot see here how the now fashionable “we should have bombed the whole of lebanon back to the stone age” argument was very much considered and rejected because it would have been EVEN MORE STUPID than the already stupid policy encouraged by the bush folks and enjoyed (for a time) by the Israelis.

THE ALTERNATIVE which Giora and others cannot see – EVEN WITH HINDSIGHT – is that a far better approach on July 12, 2006 would have been 1) hot pursuit 2) blockade after 24hours of hot pursuit attack allowed under IHL 3) WIDE international sanctions on lebanon 4) splitting hizb and the aounists by hizbullah’s stupid operation 5) PATIENCE….

This approach would have had the whole world backing israel, hizbullah would have been badly isolated EVEN AMONG THE SHI’Is.. and steadily the spider web house of cards for Hizbullah would have collapsed… much to M14 benefit!

At the very least, thousands would not have been killed and injured.


Written by nickbiddlenoe

April 14, 2012 at 8:20 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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