The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Amal-Hizbullah problems as Syria heats up?

Very interesting themes here – from our daily briefing….mideastwire.com

On January 30, the independent Al-Anbaa newspaper carried the following report by Muhammad Harfouch: “Those knowledgeable about the situation within the Amal movement and about Speaker Nabih Berri’s approach toward the local and regional situation, are talking about discrepancies between their positions and political performance and those of Hezbollah, despite the strategic alliance between the two sides. According to the latter, the divergence between the movement and the party is over two issues: the first is related to the situation in the Southern region during the next stage, to prevent it from witnessing new incidents or a serious deterioration that would lead to the renewal of the Israeli aggressions.

“This is especially due to the fact that the incidents witnessed during the last stage – whether the launching of rockets from that area or the attack which targeted UNIFIL – are heralding attempts made by some to implicate the Lebanese South in the calculations of what is happening in Syria among others, and to sent multiple regional messages, particularly to the West. In this context, some are pointing to blames within Hezbollah’s circles for what they call the movement’s shy handling of the developments in Syria and its abstinence from efficiently moving to back up and support President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Moreover, the party is afraid that this handling is a preemptive step toward the repercussions of the current crisis, in light of the expansion of the size of the uprising in a way that might lead to the removal of President Al-Assad from power.

“Indeed, this would impose a new political reality which might – one way or another – reflect on Lebanon, the political balance of powers and alliances, which are bound to change in case the Syrian regime were to collapse. In the meantime, the party is still acting as though the regime will overcome everything to which it is currently being subjected, and will not fall based on confirmed data and information in this regard. But despite this discrepancy, political sources believe it would be hard to disengage Amal’s position from Hezbollah’s, pointing to the strong ties linking the movement and Speaker Berri to the Syrian regime and Iran, which prompts them to take this reality into consideration when issuing their positions.

“This is happening although Berri is trying to benefit from the wide margin of maneuver granted to him on the political and parliamentary levels to launch political initiatives domestically and regionally, as his priority is to protect the Lebanese situation against the consequences of the regional transformations, but also to enhance domestic dialogue, protect national and Islamic unity and distance the country from any sectarian or denominational tensions.”

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

January 30, 2012 at 12:53 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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