The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Bilal goes a bit too far

Bilal Saab goes a bit too far in his analysis here:

“Hezbollah’s stance on events in Syria has also shattered its image in the Arab street, a street that not long ago adored the party for standing up to Israel and the United States. No more. Hezbollah’s flags are being burned in Syria and elsewhere.

— This is the sort of thing that NOW LEBANON gets in trouble for. Bilal I think would be hard pressed to find hizbullah flags burned outside of syria in a country where there is a democratic uprising.

Using the word “shattered” is exaggerated and gives the dangerous mis-impression that hizbullah is ideologiciall cornered in arab public opinion.

Another problem emerges here:

“….Finally, another war with Israel may pump life into Hezbollah’s hardcore cadres and add fire to its resistance approach, but in reality such an extremely risky adventure could entail massive costs from which Hezbollah may not recover easily if at all this time around. Iran may not be in a position to send cash to the group after the war. And the Syrian regime, facing an existential crisis of its own, may not be operationally capable of providing necessary military and logistical support during any such war.”

— This is all true of course, the problem is that there is NO accounting of the costs and consequences for hibzullah’s enemies! Without an understanding of that possible calculus, the assumptions Bilal draws on this point have little analytical import.

Written by nickbiddlenoe

October 26, 2011 at 12:37 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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