The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Split the regime and elites in Syria with a real plan; get Russia and Turkey on board; minimize the effects of the coming civil war

I was on France 24 last night when the syrian ambassador supposedly resigned…. I have no idea what happened but it seems F24 got tricked. Either way, a major danger – apart from the obvious horrible danger which is the Assad regime – is democracy advocates who refuse to acknowledge the moral costs involved in trying to accelerate the collapse of this regime. The assad regime will and can fight to the last Levantine, CAN SPARK A MAJOR REGIONAL WAR IF THEY ARE GOING down and have WMDs.

We all must acknowledge the moral risk in this pathway, AND acknowledge that there is violence on the part of those opposing the regime and it will get worse. One guests from london said that 100% of the violence was on the part of the regime… he sounded sadly like the baathist agitprop.

From there, I think the best way to minimize the effects of that civil war and speed the end of the regime is to have major international actors offer a clear roadmap NOW that must be taken as is by the regime 1) Ending US economic sanctions and speeding aid for the economy concurrent with 2) the regime agreeing to democractic benchmarks laid out by syrians already within syria (parliamentary election in 6 months for example, military pull back) CONCURRENTLY WITH 3) an international push to end israeli occupation of Syrian land on a tabletable.

Many will say – but the Assad regime wont accept!

— EVEN BETTER, since this will make them wholly unreasonable and accelerate multiple splits within the regime, elite, military as well as among regional allies. Put a credible Roadmap forward with a credible international committment (even russia may get on board this as a UNSCR) and the effect of any collapse will be far less in lives lost and horrible regional war contingencies than the path we are now on. This is an awful moral dilemma but it is one that must be faced honestly and effectively NOW.


Written by nickbiddlenoe

June 8, 2011 at 7:28 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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