The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Lebanon between a hard place and a worse place

I generally agree with this piece and the unnamed sources…. Although I tend to think the descent into multiple fronts of violence needs more time for the actors involved since right now, still, a multiple front conflict (and it will by necessity by many sided) is not yet in any of the actors interests or within a rational risk calculation.

The problem is that the situation in Lebanon and the region and especially Syria is manifestly worsening and the ONLY thing mitigating or rather holding back a many sided series of open wars (beyond the handful that are already ONGOING) right now is the Mutual Assured Destruction fear – the Exum calculus if you will.

June 5 will be tough, but I dont think it is likely to mark the definitive “start”… that is likely to come in the months ahead, possibly weeks ahead. But make no mistake, the safe bet right now, sadly, is for the war(s) expected by myself and many others for the past 1-2 years to get going shortly.

In due course the Obama (relative) laissez faire (or at least under-the-radar-screen) approach will, I think, come to be seen as having been even more woefully inadequate than the Bush approach was so often just plain stupid.

From our Daily Briefing today, translated:

On May 31, the independent El-Nashra website carried the following exclusive report by Paula Astih: “Prominent sources in the March 14 forces said based on the targeting of the UNIFIL troops operating in South Lebanon last week, that a security explosion was imminent and will be preceded by various security incidents in all the Lebanese regions. In statements to El-Nashra, the sources expected “the eruption of three axes following the emergence of the signs of various security incidents,” adding: “First of all, the northern front will be ignited between the Alawis and the Sunnis, which will lead to the exportation of the Syrian crisis to us, knowing that we recently witnessed similar attempts which will soon intensify.” The sources then believed that the Palestinian camps constituted “a second axis for the security incidents,” expecting the saboteurs to try to “undermine the Palestinian unity and concord recently achieved.”

“The same sources continued that the South Lebanon axis was the most active, indicating: “The tensions there will be divided between two fronts. The first is the Palestinian-Israeli front, especially following the revival of the actions toward the border and the expectations that these actions will escalate next Sunday. As for the second, it is the open front between Hezbollah and Israel that could be ignited at any moment.” The sources then assured: “What is being prepared for Lebanon is coordinated between Syria and Iran to allocate the roles and shuffle the cards,” continuing: “The talk of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on the anniversary of the resistance and liberation was powerful enough to activate the fronts, and signal the launching of what is worse, i.e. the implementation of the Iranian-Syrian plan to manage the next stage.”

“In parallel, the sources considered that the “security action cannot be dissociated from the governmental situation,” saying: “The March 8 team does not wish to form a government of confrontation with the international community. This will definitely be the last card it plays if the situation proceeds in a way that goes against its wishes. The last settlement to resolve the Interior Ministry complex, ended with the evacuation of these forces from the Telecommunications Ministry and its surrender to President of the Republic Michel Suleiman or Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati. This happened after international companies informed Lebanon they will stop supplying spare parts and consequently discontinue any cooperation with this sector, in case the so-called Hezbollah government is formed.”

“The sources added: “Confirmed Western information reached a number of Lebanese leaders, talking about the presence of sanctions which will target Lebanon in the event of the formation of such a government and in case the relations between Lebanon and Syria are upheld in their current form. Indeed, the concerned officials were told by more than one mediator that Syrian-Lebanese cooperation must be halted and that the official position in support of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad must be replaced with one in support of the revolution and the revolutionaries.””

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

May 31, 2011 at 5:59 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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