The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

“Simple Facts” and Syria’s fall

Writing at FP, Elliot Hentov has this problematic conclusion that represents a major problem in much of the analysis on Syria which, to varying degrees, want to accelerate events to a climax – the sooner the better:

“…. Any regime that would follow Assad would likely be less forthcoming toward Iran. By definition, any successor regime would be more reflective of the Sunni majority and resentful of most legacies of the current Alawite-dominated regime, including its close ties with Tehran. Most problematically, Iran lacks an alternative to Syria. There is simply no other regional player interested and able to provide comparable goods. Therefore, if Assad went down, so would Iran’s regional influence. This simple fact should also serve as a reminder for the broader debate on how to deal with Tehran as a regional player, namely, that Iran’s position is less a driver of regional events than a function of those events.

— Any concluding paragraph with this much obviousness and simplyness and of courseness should be taken with a heavy dose of skepticism… Indeed, with the case thus laid out, it is OBVIOUS that the US, Israel and other Resistance Axis enemies should push this thing hard to an immensely satisfying tipping point. After all, 2-1=1

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

May 11, 2011 at 11:31 am

Posted in Uncategorized

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