The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

(Another) irony of a M8 government in Lebanon: Better protection from Syria unrest and reactions?

Forget the relatively minor domestic ironies and issues…One of the most important factors auguring somewhat well for Lebanese stability alongside Syria’s descent into chaos(?) may be …. a M8 government – and quick.

I have a piece coming out hopefully today – after much delays – in Foreign Policy that discusses Hizbullah’s likely moves in the deteriorating situation, but I think, overall, it’s likely that a M8 government will be relatively better able (though they may not be successful depending on the course of the unrest) to 1) hold off possible pressure from Syria for military intervention in the coming weeks as sanctuaries may get set up for oppositionists – this is critical as Assad will find it hard to re-enter lebanon with Hizbullah preponderant – and 2) contain overt support and movement for oppositionists in Lebanon (sadly…perhaps…?) and 3) deal with possible minority refugee movements across borders (as there will presumably be less political manipulation towards interests within Syria).

Another important factor in the coming period to consider – should the Syrian unrest take on MORE of an overt Sunni Islamist charachter, perhaps even escalating to attacks on minorities – the Future movement here and their many Salafi allies (some of which are actual “ex” Al-Qaeda!) will be enormously pressed.

Indeed, this has been and currently is – with May Akl’s piece in FP and comments by FPM folks – PRECISELY THE ARGUMENT which the Aounists have mobilized to good effect in the prior few years as the reason why an alliance with Shi’i’ Hizbullah is the best of bad options for christians of Lebanon.

Sunni Islamist-led violence and/or emerging control across the border should have a “wedge” effect (i.e. splitting, ironically, between the so called moderates and the radicals!)  on Future, Hariri and perhaps even their Saudi backers (especially if the thrust moves beyond the sanctioned-Wahhabism/loyalism which is particularly likely in the Syria case (and perhaps in the Libyan case…. and perhaps in the Yemani case…. and maybe even the Egyptian case…?)

Advertisements

Written by nickbiddlenoe

April 25, 2011 at 3:57 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

%d bloggers like this: