The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

The CedarLeaks Revolution: US was spearhead for simple majority president/Harder, Faster, Stronger Feltman

Well, there is so much in wikileaks…. but I particularly loved this bit from Feltman on the half plus one crisis in 2007 that adds yet more evidence to the frankly stupid policy which he and the Bush folks concocted in squandering the original promise and possibilities of the Cedar Revolution (ok I am back to NOT question the conventional knowledge here on Feltman again!).

Here he makes clear what we already basically knew – the US position was one of using almost constant force, pressure and violence against its opponents, thinking this was the best way to “fight back” against what they viewed as force, pressure and violence on the other side.

This might make sense if there was a relative power balance – however, in Lebanon, the US and its allies all around held a clear preponderance of power AND this preponderance began to decline as the advantage was pushed still farther in 2005-2006 – hence the stupidity of the way Feltman et al fought what they saw as a war, but which was in reality became a deepening trap for them:

15. (C) Given their razor-thin but surviving parliamentary
majority, March 14 MPs should theoretically be able to elect
a president, select a prime minister, and form a cabinet, all
from March 14 ranks. That is obviously the scenario we would
like to see. That is the outcome we continue to do all we
can to help produce.

16. (C) But the sky-is-falling stories of potential chaos
and catastrophe have eroded both March 14 bloc discipline and
international solidarity. We suspect Khoja is correct that
March 14 would have trouble mustering 64 MPs (the minimum
needed for an absolute majority election), and anything less
than 68 MPs would be deeply embarrassing to March 14. We
know from our diplomatic colleagues that, at best, some
countries will reluctantly accept a half-plus-one election as
a last resort, but it seems that all except the United States
are actively working to find a compromise solution instead,
some (maybe even Saudi Arabia) at almost any cost. It is
important to note that one essential factor for the success
of an absolute majority president — Maronite Patriarch
Sfeir’s blessing — remains uncertain.

Advertisements

Written by nickbiddlenoe

April 14, 2011 at 1:59 pm

Posted in ANALYSIS

%d bloggers like this: