The Mideastwire Blog

Translations of the Arab Media & Analysis of US Policy in MENA

Aounists, M14 and the latest Wikileaks: Bye Bye National Defense Plan

A few initial observations on Akhbar’s latest wiki drips – which are NOT very satisfactory in terms of the transparency and ordering of their release!

1) Read Naharnet and then read the cables…. To any english speaking journo in town or outside, remember that Naharnet is NOT NEWS it is a pretty poor info-op vehicle. Just note what they chose to highlight – and poorly so – and where they are quiet…. You would think that the FPM was the main advisor to the US GOV!

2) Even in private, with the US, and even at the BEGINNING of the 2006 war – when there was clearly wide anger at Hizbullah and where the fpm-hizb alliance did indeed seem like a bad idea – the FPM folks, including even the least inclined among them to Hizbullah, are coming up looking either as trustworthy allies or, at worst, far more patriotic and trustworthy than their adversaries. Even Farid el-Khazen, which seems to be the hardest on the alliance with Hizbullah (and he was and is) still stakes out a fundamentally different position than the M14 folks who, their opponents are charging with relative ease now, merely look like collaborators and facilitators for the widespread murder of their countrymen (IF THESE LEAKS ARE accurate AND are accurate reflections of the meetings from the minds of the US REP – then this is what the M14 opponents are able to make hay out of).

3) This fundamental divide in approach to Lebanon between M14 and the FPM (Khazen, as but one example, talks about the need to only target Hizbullah combatants and not shiites or shiite areas, whereas M14 doesnt seem to care much at all about the community or the damage – indeed encourages it!) is one major indication of why the MOU between the FPM and Hizbullah has held up so well under such fire! Many have argued there is ONLY self-interest in the MOU…. I disagree and believe IN PART, that the MOU was founded and has grown on common ideas and values, as well as pure interests….whether one agrees with those values or not is another matter.

The FPM and Hizbullah actually, one can see in the wiki material – have some very similar, compatible ideas, values about Lebanon.  Compare the FPM wiki meetings with the M14 ones and, well, night and day.

4) I think the gravest problem for M14 is not the appearance of almost direct collaboration with Israel in the destruction of large parts of the country as a whole – although this is a major blow to m14 – but rather that the m14 apparent willingness to sacrifice so many of their countrymen – Shiites – GREATLY reinforces the cancer at the center of M14 protestations/ideas on having a strong LAF willing to defend the whole country.

in 2005-2006 M14 could have made a credible case – if properly supported with real action on the ground by the US and others – that it wanted to and would credibly defend ALL of lebanon if Hizbullah integrated under the authority of the state.

That case faded a long time ago in the hearts and minds of the Shia of Lebanon – and now has faded as even an empty promise stated more for political positioning than practical effect in the hearts and minds of m14 supporters (who now just want “to live” themselves and dont seem much concerned about even making credible arguments about defending non M14 areas).

Now, with the wiki-drips any hope of a (future) National Defense Strategy is blown out of the water.

Written by nickbiddlenoe

March 18, 2011 at 4:23 pm

Posted in ANALYSIS

%d bloggers like this: