Nasrallah on why Israel will collapse
At a conference in Washington this week, one top Israeli think-tank leader pooh-poohed the idea that Hezbollah represents a deep threat (strange, and just a bit schizo, because on the other hand all hell is being raised by the Israelis to get more anti-missile system funding and to argue the existential threat that the resistance axis, with Hizbullah as the nearest enemy, represents). He said that Hizbullah is slightly more dangerous than… the Palestinian resistance groups i.e. pretty much squashable.
In any case – on this ten year anniversary interesting to think about Nasrallah’s analysis about why he believes Israeli will collapse in the near to medium term. In my mind, this claim is representative of how far out ahead his more messianic discourse has gone… but then again, I really don’t have much more than a superficial understanding of Israel’s SWOTs.
From late 2008 speech:
“As for the elimination of Israel from existence, let the beloved ones who are enemies of Israel and the others who are friends of Israel and are betting on it, listen to what I say: The elimination of Israel from existence is inevitable because this is a historical and divine law from which there is no escape. This is definite. I am talking about the historical course of events in the region. I believe that this historical course will reach its end in the coming few years. This is mandatory and inevitable for subjective and objective reasons [a meaningless distinction, pure rhetoric, one should note]. This is not the right time to deliver a lecture. Therefore, I will say these reasons quickly [interesting because this all important “lecture” has not really come since then….how will Israel collapse, what are its strong points, what is auguring against this teleology, how does Nasrallah know this when he is so far away from the object??? This is Nasrallah at his weakest I think, determinism, teleology, messianism….. all undermining his own divided desire for independent reasoning]
1. “Because Israel is an alien entity that cannot continue in the region. This is a subjective reason.
2. “Because Israel’s existence does not depend on its intrinsic power but the international will and the international situation which will change within a few years, too. [oh really?]
3. “Because the Palestinian people have held out for 60 years, during which they endured what is unbearable and they continue to endure the daily killings, siege, and starvation. Their leaders, cadres, youth, women, and children are killed. Nevertheless, they refuse to surrender or give up Jerusalem or the land. They refuse to be resettled in any land other than the holy land of Palestine. This is not simple. Holding out for 60 years under all these tough, bitter, and painful circumstances in spite of world abandonment of them is one of the factors leading to the elimination of Israel from existence and the absence of a future for it.
4. “Because of the demographic situation in Palestine of 1948 and 1967. The occasion might not be appropriate now to say this but let me say it. I once said in a speech that the Israelis are afraid about their existence even if the Palestinians do not carry arms and do not adopt the strategy of armed resistance, but instead adopt the strategy of marriage and reproduction. Israel will not then continue to exist.
5. “Because of Arab objection. Some Arab countries, headed by Syria, and others throughout the Arab and Islamic world, continue to object. The Zionists know that some rulers may normalize relations with them but our sincere, loyal, faithful, and truthful peoples throughout the Arab and Islamic world cannot forgive the occupation of Jerusalem and Palestine. If some rulers are ready to forgive in order to protect their thrones, our peoples and generations will not forgive the Zionists who perpetrated massacres in Dayr Yasin and Qana. These peoples will keep Israel besieged, alien, and extraneous without having the ability to continue or survive.
6. “Because of the loss of the Israeli political and military leaders. I am responsible for the words I said a few years ago when Sharon came and they began to scare us with him. I said Sharon is the last king of the people of Israel. Israel will no longer have a king. All are dwarfs [really? All are dwarfs? smacks of pure hubris]. When the Winograd commission report was issued, some people considered it an accomplishment that Olmert stayed in power. They considered this failure on the part of the resistance. On the contrary, we are happy that Olmert is staying.
“If we are asked to choose between an enemy prime minister who is strong and has a charisma and can improve the Israeli situation, and a prime minister who is helpless, failing, stupid, and foolish, we will choose the second. I officially thank Mr Winograd for not holding Ehud Olmert personally responsible.
7. “Because of the loss of ideology in the Zionist society. This is what Netanyahu spoke about a few years ago when he said the Zionist ideology of the people of Israel has ended and the Zionist plan and ideology have become past history. Take a look at culture in Israel today although the Arabs do not regrettably follow things up. Look at the rate of thefts, crime, drugs, security chaos, social and political disintegration, and internal strife. This is the society which replaced an ideology, for which the first gangs sacrificed, with a different reality. Now its youth refuse to join the army and soldiers in the army refuse to go to death.
8. “Because of the fall of the Israeli Army and its prestige and the fall of its ability to deter, and the decline in the soldiers’ confidence in their officers and the officers’ confidence in generals, and the decline in the people’s confidence in this army and this institution. I am not the one saying this. Read what the Zionists and opinion polls say in Israel. These final results were brought about by the 2000 victory, the escalation of the intifadah in Palestine, the Zionists’ failure to confront the brothers in the various Palestinian resistance factions, and the July war. Therefore, I quoted what their founder and expert Ben-Gurion said. He said Israel would collapse after losing the first war.
“I am explaining this to the nation so that it will have confidence, hope, and horizon. There was a debate in Israel on whether they were defeated or not in 1973, but there was no such debate about the July war. There was a debate in Lebanon, of course, because there are people in Lebanon who were wagering on Israel to win. When it did not win, they were upset.”