The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Three talks in Paris and London on Nasrallah/Turkish president says ‘worst case scenario’ in Syria becoming reality/ICG failure

I will be giving several lectures/talks in the coming two weeks in London and Paris (info below). Suffice it to say that the Turkish President is right, as quoted in the headline above: but what we always must remember as matters turn even worse, is that we were always going to end up on this road to real disaster because of 1) the Obama administration’s policy of soft neglect which ceded the field of ideas to the neo-cons and ultimately enabled the WAR option which is now coming to pass and 2) peace and conflict mitigation groups who very very early on threw up there hands and refused to/failed to even discuss a third way between the Obama policy of benign neglect and the neo-con war path (where, as we can now see, the first path ACTUALLY LEADS TO THE LATTER PATH!)

International Crisis Group – which routinely does the best work of course on MENA – made a major error here in my mind. In one part (there is more) of their reports over the last 19 months below, they demonstrate how bereft they were – at the MOST critical moments, especially the beginning – of alternative ideas that would have done far better for all involved.

– Limited suggestions about how better to target sanctions and diplomatic denunciations were paired with a kind of hands up attitude which said, as one ICG report put it in March 2011, “there unfortunately is little [the international community] can do. Outside actors possess little leverage, particularly at a time when the regime feels its survival is at stake.”

– An incredible lapse in my mind by ICG – since this is simply wrong.

I wrote about alternatives in May 2011 and in February 2012:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/07/opinion/in-syria-we-need-to-bargain-with-the-devil.html?pagewanted=1

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nicholas-noe/a-third-way-on-syria-is-possible_b_868383.html

And the nightmare scenario here:

http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-hezbollah-apocalypse-5581

***********

I will be speaking at a few places in the coming days before heading to the US for elections.

1) American University of Paris – Tuesday October 16 (17:00).

2) London School of Economics – Wednesday October 17 (18:00 Hrs I believe)

http://www2.lse.ac.uk/publicEvents/events/2012/10/20121017t1830vNT.aspx

3) And Monday October 22 at CAABU (13:00) – talks are generally along the lines of the CAABU notice below!

Caabu would like to invite you to a private briefing session

with Nicholas Noe
Nicholas Noe is the editor of the 2007 book, Voice of Hezbollah: The Statements of Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah (Verso), Co-Founder & Editor-in-Chief of the Beirut-based news translation service Mideastwire.com covering the Arabic and Iranian media and the Director of the Beirut Exchange program (www.thebeirutexchange.com) which now counts more than 270 student alumni from 45 different countries. (Full bio below)
“Nasrallah and the Arab Revolts”

Monday 22 October

1pm-3pm

The Boardroom,
Arab-British Centre,
1 Gough Square,
London EC4A 3DE

Click here for map

This is an invitation-only event as spaces are limited

Please RSVP to Chris Doyle at doylec@caabu.org

Nicholas Noe is the editor of the 2007 book, Voice of Hezbollah: The Statements of Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah (Verso), Co-Founder & Editor-in-Chief of the Beirut-based news translation service Mideastwire.com covering the Arabic and Iranian media and the Director of the Beirut Exchange program (www.thebeirutexchange.com) which now counts more than 270 student alumni from 45 different countries.
Over the past eight years of living and working in Beirut, Mr. Noe has steadily risen to become a leading expert on US policy towards the Lebanon, with a particular emphasis on crafting new approaches to non-state actors such as Hizbullah. He regularly provides commentary for Al-Jazeera International, BBC, CNN and several US and European publications and is the author of a White Paper for the Century Foundation entitled: “Re-Imagining the Lebanon Track: Towards a New US Policy.” His Op-Eds on the region have appeared in The New York Times, The Guardian, Foreign Policy Magazine, Asia Times, The National Interest, The National and Middle East Times.
Prior to moving to Lebanon, Mr. Noe worked as a speechwriter and policy analyst for New York City Council Speaker Gifford Miller and was a member of the opposition research team at the New York State Democratic Committee in support of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton’s bid for US Senate in 1999-2000. He received his BA Magna Cum Laude, Phi Beta Kappa from Brown University in 1999 and his MPhil with High Distinction in 2006 from Cambridge University’s Centre for International Studies where was also elected a scholar of Selwyn College. Mr. Noe is currently a Ph.D. candidate at the Lebanese University.

Written by nickbiddlenoe

October 9, 2012 at 1:09 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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