The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Best article on all roads leading to war

A great one from Samir Karam in Safir here. The only slim hope at this point, in my opinion, for avoiding an Israeli so-called “preemtive” offensive (in lebanon and/or iran) is to accelerate the collapse of Assad. Samir lists the grand old possibility of the Israeli position changing but then rightfully dismisses that as IMPOSSIBLE.

STILL – The root problem with this ONE last hope is that the acceleration of the collapse almost certainly necessitates more direct intervention which ALSO likely leads to regional war. Even absent this effect, the Samson Option still likely holds – an Assad regime about to collapse easily and with enough deniability even sparks…regional war – and, it should be stated, whether iran or hizbullah want it or not is immaterial at that point!

It is therefore very very hard at this point to see how in the coming weeks, possibly months, the various actors avoid the long anticipated conflict since August 2006, which several of the opposing sides have promised will be “the last” (what a stupid, irresponsible and ugly pronouncement if ever there was one in advance of a war!).

Please someone outline a reasonable scenario that does NOT lead to regional war at this point? I am all ears.

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

August 28, 2012 at 3:41 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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