The Mideastwire Blog

Excerpts from the Arab and Iranian Media & Analysis of US Policy in the Region

Israel’s big security problem: The New Resistance Axis and its Bound Hands

Of course this will begin to take shape in the coming days and months in greater focus…. suffice it to say for now, it seems assured that the Resistance Axis (Hizbullah, Hamas, Syria, Iran and Turkey/Qatar as moderating allies with cash, credibility and reach) will at least be strengthened by the events in Egypt.

This is not even dependent on Egypt 1) breaking the treaty with Israel 2) the MB ruling the state 3) the army moving in a hostile way against Israel.

It is ENOUGH in several senses that an Egypt which even moves slightly away from its formerly supportive and stabilizing role with Israel CHANGES the Military balance of power of other forces, primarily Hamas.

On aspect of this is becoming clear: Restricting Israel’s ability to strike when it sees fit over events in Gaza.

Should Hamas’s position now improve on several fronts – which now seems very likely – Israel will be enormously HARD PRESSED to strike IN EGYPT against arms smuggling etc. (and what about money transfers etc that Suleiman was able to intercede against?)…..

Egypt has now been positioned as a democratic country in the West that was brutally held back and violated by a regime which Israel liked till its last breath…. that picture will be hard to undermine without a great deal of subterfuge, opposition/MB mistakes and false flag operations which Israel may not be ABLE to undertake without GREAT risk…(Dubai).

So as Hamas’s pathways to further changing its own Balance of military power with Israel OPEN UP, the problem for Israel is that, especially for the next few months, there is VERY LITTLE THAT IT CAN DO EXCEPT COMPLAIN to the Security council, threaten Egyptian elites and people and pressure the US and others on the subject.

It is, therefore, an ironic reversal of the position of so many in the Arab world who could ONLY protest in vain like that when Israel was essentially unbounded.

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Written by nickbiddlenoe

February 11, 2011 at 6:56 pm

Posted in ANALYSIS

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