A response to fears about revolutions “going wrong” – Use the Iranian example
A key rebuttal to the growing media/policy elite chatter about the Egyptian Revolution potentially “going wrong” is in fact to revert to the Iranian example of 1979: The hardline Khomeinist side of the Revolution was able to push leftist, secular and “democratic” elements aside (and in effect crush them) overtime due in large part to 1) the terrible, direct legacy of US involvement in the country (which is not nearly as evident in Egypt) and 2) because of “external pressure” factors including a) internal intelligence subversion by outside states, b) the Iraq-launched war on Iran which greatly radicalized the environment c) the US attempts to directly attack, isolate and pressure Iran, especially after the Embassy crisis, which ALSO served to undercut more “moderate” currents.
– Indeed, this is ALSO the lesson of the failed Ceder Revolution policy here in Lebanon largely put in place by the Bush folks.
This is the legacy that needs to be kept in mind – if the US, Israel and others attempt to sideline, pressure and otherwise chill the political environment in Egypt this will actually ONLY serve to radicalize the environment and undercut the “moderate” currents that are supposedly beneficial for US and Israeli interests.
The talking points have already gone out though in DC and Jerusalem and I fear that the same policy applied to Islamists the region over will be brought to bear in Egypt. Hopefully Obama is smarter than this… but can he withstand the domestic and Israeli pressure to use force and pressure against currents which have expressed opposition to our policies?